I have a strong feeling that for most people, the biggest reason for business failure or personal stagnation is due to the fear of asking. This applies to me, so it must apply to others out there.

Let's examine this for a minute. What are some fears that people have when it comes to asking?

• Asking to be treated fairly in a relationship
• Asking for what you feel you deserve to be paid, instead of what you think you can get
• Asking others to allow you to speak & make a point
• Asking the people you have wronged for forgiveness
• Asking that your government representatives actually represent your interests for a change
• Asking a girl out on a date
  

The list goes on...

It has always been a weakness of mine. I'm sure others are in the same boat. Why else would it be that so many people are having trouble making ends meet? They clearly accept their precarious financial situation. It's as if they are content with being poor. Just as in centuries past, people were content with being slaves.

The reason is always the same: they are afraid to ask.

Well, I don't know about you all, but as far as I'm concerned, I'm determined to get over my fear of asking. Whatever it takes.

This new modus operandi is called "being assertive." It is now my new quest.

I will start by getting over my fear of asking for $300/hr as my consulting rate. This is how it begins.

Stay tuned for status updates on my quest. This blog will be my journal on this exciting shift in paradigm.

It was April 29, 2010 when I called a top in the Dow. It looks like I hit the nail on the head there. Since the top (11,205), the Dow has plunged more than 1200 points. I think it's safe to say now that a bear trend has started that will continue well into 2011.

Now for my latest market call, buy silver now. The gold-silver ratio has just hit 70:1 after being in the low 60s for nearly a year. It's time to buy some silver.

In other news,

1. Owners stop paying mortgage ... and stop fretting about it
2. America - the grim truth

Gold has just reached a new all-time high today. It looks like gold is breaking out like a true champ.

There is an old adage among hard-core gold bugs: "Sell in May and go away." There is some truth to that statement. Gold's seasonality is such that the summer is usually a bad period, where gold does nothing and sometimes actually falls quite dramatically in price.

Well, this year is shaping up to be very different. This is a May breakout. I've never seen anything like it. It is totally counter-seasonal. This indicates enormous strength in gold right now.

What does this mean for the coming months? I think gold at $1800 before the end of 2010 is not out of the question. In fact, the likelihood of that is about 70%.

There is dollar devaluation afoot. The Euro is no longer a safe haven. Where do you put your rapidly-depreciating dollars? The stock market casino? Bonds that yield less than 3%? No. Real estate in a time of recession? No. Gold is the only thing left.

Maybe the old adage should be changed to "buy in May and go away."

The chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, Joseph LaVorgna, has just stated, "we're out of the woods for good." Apparently, the recession is over. People are spending, companies are making strong positive earnings, and it's "not just an arithmetic story. It's a story of legitimate growth."

OK. That's it. I'm calling a top. We're at Dow what now, 11,200? Well 11,200 is the highest it will be for a long time to come.

Where is the money supply recently? Let's see... the M3? Oh that's right, it's SHRINKING!

http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

We are shrinking at a rate of -7.7% annually! Yikes!

Oh, and let's not forget the 9.7% unemployment rate that hasn't budged at all. How on earth can this be a real recovery?

Not only that, but recently I've noticed that a lot of bears have turned bullish.

But guess what, people ARE spending! Consumers ARE buying stuff, despite being unable to pay for it. Delinquencies are at all-time highs! This at a time when interest rates are ZERO!

What else? Oh, the Dow has been rising non-stop since March, 2009. We are now 13 months into this crazy rally, which is nothing more than a bear market rally.

So, to conclude, I'm calling a top. 11,200. This is it. Expect some big downward moves in the coming months.

P.S. My track record speaks for itself: in March, 2009 I called the bottom with my infamous post "Bottom". Then I qualified that by saying it WOULD get worse, in the long term. Well, now is the time for the resumption of that long term trend.

I'll be brief. We are now at a point where the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is likely to correct substantially over the coming months. I assign this outcome a probability of over 40%, with a probability of virtually 100% that the DJIA will make a substantial correction by November of this year.

What do I mean by "substantial correction"? I mean 10% or more. This means about 1000 points or more. Likely far more.

So now where do I place the probability of a gain of 10% or more? That would mean the Dow hitting at least 11,800. I would put that at about 40%. The irrational euphoria has a high chance of going on much longer & much higher than anyone expects it to.

So given that, how should you act in this market? It is my belief that, at this point, buying the Dow is no longer worth the risk of it going down, possibly as much as 50%, over the coming months.

It is certainly time to sell the Dow, but not short sell it (yet). When it is time to short, I will post another announcement on my blog that we have hit the top.

Once again, to summarize, this is not the top. But at this point you should be cashing out & sitting on the sidelines.